Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 16.373461 18.680778 21.175755 24.071492 27.337248 30.903614 35.090739
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.456740 15.443476 18.927288 23.280911 28.565421 34.761150 42.564994
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 10.760601 14.065490 18.110004 23.405070 30.134379 38.379223 49.223578
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 9.553452 13.085657 17.595165 23.744851 31.879579 42.234352 56.372626
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 8.573765 12.232123 17.077450 23.922322 33.294011 45.619924 62.994858
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 7.642240 11.321007 16.360945 23.714782 34.105089 48.183234 68.609960
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 7.002177 10.734805 16.008275 23.931787 35.449536 51.478428 75.346138
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.613676 10.463471 16.057834 24.691441 37.569800 55.932122 83.922366
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 6.006718 9.800891 15.468334 24.445804 38.177353 58.221351 89.474032
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.228171 8.797557 14.277586 23.186114 37.155170 58.024256 91.296630
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.967397 8.588560 14.283709 23.754491 38.931025 62.066437 99.672927
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.746593 8.422026 14.336788 24.387215 40.827242 66.371553 108.658513
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.357163 7.947577 13.868529 24.162605 41.371989 68.656226 114.700998
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.958988 7.422867 13.275757 23.685378 41.466958 70.224641 119.683979
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.691015 7.101222 12.995910 23.704379 42.366646 73.110575 126.921170
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.507250 6.914554 12.932187 24.084695 43.890695 77.088683 136.156825
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.306283 6.677405 12.758519 24.252222 45.044882 80.491937 144.581216
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.068717 6.349426 12.394315 24.046097 45.516791 82.741783 151.126037
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.910481 6.160728 12.269995 24.264562 46.751052 86.354963 160.196521
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.835309 6.129817 12.437658 25.034633 49.028954 91.904788 172.944398
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.639601 5.837744 12.083484 24.785620 49.394475 94.052084 179.692795
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.342658 5.309995 11.230324 23.509472 47.737438 92.438327 179.505593
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.273076 5.257129 11.315914 24.085289 49.658185 97.480124 191.809407